Modeling the impact of testing, tracing, and quarantine

摘要： A new model suggests a plan to keep Covid-19 within the capacity of the health-care system while reopening economic activities.

Sociotechnical Systems Research Center | Institute for Data, Systems, and Society Publication Date:September 8, 2020

Testing, contact tracing, and quarantining infected people are all tools in the effort to mitigate the spread of Covid-19. So are mask-wearing and social distancing. But what impact does each have? A study co-authored by MIT researchers finds that robust testing, contact tracing, and quarantining by household can keep cases within the capacity of the health-care system — preventing a “second wave” — while allowing for the reopening of some economic activities.

The paper, published Aug. 5 in Nature Human Behaviour, details a novel model that integrates anonymized, real-time mobility data with census and demographic data to map Covid-19 transmission in the Boston, Massachusetts area. The authors include Esteban Moro, a visiting research scientist in the MIT Media Lab and MIT Connection Science, and Alex “Sandy” Pentland, director of MIT Connection Science and a professor in the Media Lab and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS).

This research sheds new light on possible pitfalls and solutions as cities look to lift restrictions that have been in place throughout the summer in many locations. Using data from approximately 85,000 people in the greater Boston area, combined with known information about Covid-19 transmission rates, duration of stages, and other data points, the authors’ model forecasts the number of new cases and hospitalizations under various scenarios of lifted restrictions.

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轉貼自： MIT News

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